The hottest high oil price has caused trouble and

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The high oil price has caused trouble and added worries to the global economic recovery - Lu Lixin, general manager of Xinda securities research and development center, "we predict that the crude oil price will exceed the first quarter in the fourth quarter of 2011, and will remain high at both ends and low in the middle throughout the year. The high oil price will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy in 2012." After boldly predicting in October last year that the crude oil price would stand at $100 per barrel in the first quarter of 2011, Cinda securities research and Development Center issued a report again that the global crude oil price center will continue to move up in the next three years. Why did the crude oil price show such changes in 2011? What investment opportunities will the change of crude oil price bring to China's stock market? Securities Times interviewed lvlixin, general manager of Xinda securities research and development center, on relevant issues

this year's oil price 5) install the two ends of the test piece, high school and low

Securities Times: is there any adjustment in your view of this year's oil price trend

Lu Lixin: on the surface, the trend of oil price is affected by shapeways' first full-color plastic 3D printing material, which has changed the political situation in the Middle East since this year, but in fact, the oil price stands at the $100 mark, and its internal logical relationship is still reasonable. Now, we still adhere to the view put forward last year: the crude oil price showed a trend of high at both ends and low in the middle in 2011. It was a high point in the first and fourth quarters, fell back in the second and third quarters, and the crude oil price in the first quarter will reach $100

Securities Times: in the second half of last year, you predicted that the crude oil price would exceed $100 at the beginning of 2011. What were your considerations at that time

LV Lixin: from the perspective of supply and demand, crude oil supply is still relatively tight, but demand is gradually recovering. The global liquidity flooding from 2008 to 2010 has not been reflected in the current oil price. We believe that emerging markets cannot absorb global liquidity. With the recovery of the global economy and the rise of demand, the liquidity factor will gradually be reflected in oil prices. In addition, if the Federal Reserve does not shrink liquidity, it will increase the formation of oil price foam. The economic cycle model we currently use has successfully predicted the high oil price in the first quarter of 2011, the low oil price in March and April 2009, and the oil price at the end of 2009 to $80. In our entire oil price analysis framework, in addition to human economic activities, we will also consider the impact of climate anomalies on commodity markets. For example, in October last year, we issued a report predicting that La Nina phenomenon would lead to unusually cold winter in the northeast of the United States this year, which would play a certain role in promoting oil prices

optimistic about oil price related varieties

Securities Times: how will high oil prices affect relevant sectors? How should the relevant sections be laid out

LV Lixin: the chemical fertilizer and pesticide sector is a variety closely related to oil prices, and we are optimistic at the beginning of the year. We are still optimistic about potash fertilizer and tire skeleton materials and additives companies. Until May this year, the potash fertilizer sector has opportunities, while tire skeleton materials and additives are long-term bullish

Securities Times: can you introduce your research system and corresponding research methods

LV Lixin: in terms of crude oil and chemical industry, we prefer a top-down research method, that is, crude oil industry company, so that we can have an accurate grasp of the macro-economy and the whole industry

taking oil price as an example, we look for the corresponding industries, sectors and the best companies according to the prosperity of crude oil prices in various periods. In terms of sample selection, in addition to listed companies, unlisted companies and similar foreign companies are also within the scope of our investigation. Comparing their financial data, we can find relatively excellent domestic companies

research strength has been steadily enhanced

Securities Times: as a new company, what is the position of Cinda securities' research team in the whole company structure

LV Lixin: Cinda securities has a good momentum of development in recent years. With the rapid expansion of the company's brokerage business, the steady progress of investment banking, asset management and proprietary business, especially the steady enhancement of research force, the brand effect of Cinda began to appear. Although the scale of Cinda securities researchers is not large at present, it has formed a high-quality professional research team composed of multidisciplinary and highly educated researchers with deep economic theory and rich practical experience, covering the main industries and fields involved in the securities market. Over the past three years, it has won the excellent topic award of China Securities Association for many times, and won the fourth place of the most potential research institution of new wealth in 2010

Securities Times: Institutional Investor Service is becoming the main business work of the research institutions of securities companies. Can you introduce Xinda about the experimental machine? We have the situation of director Yuan Securities Research and development center in this regard

LV Lixin: Cinda securities, founded in 2007, is an industry recruit. The research and development center has just started in the seller's research, but it has developed rapidly. At present, we have formulated the seller research and development plan, and strive to enter the top 20 in the industry in the next three to five years. Among them, the research level of chemical industry, nonferrous metals, coal and other industries is relatively prominent, with core competitiveness

for example, since the establishment of the chemical group in the second half of last year, all experiments can be solved with only one key of the computer. It has established a chemical simulation portfolio (which is the first attempt in all seller Industry Research), and has been widely concerned by some large and medium-sized fund companies. There have been more than 40 roadshows, and some key recommended company stocks have entered and affected the position varieties and position structures of some funds

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